I was a bit reluctant to post a tip for this one at first. I’ve not seen too much of either fighter to be honest, but have obviously been very impressed with Moses Itauma’s round 1 demolition of Dillian Whyte and the highlights from some of his other very early knockouts. I was aware of Jermaine Franklin Jr’s fights with Whyte and Anthony Joshua, and even though he went the distance with them both, the general consensus is that Itauma will get rid of Jermaine Franklin very early on.
An early stoppage is obviously a distinct possibility given Itauma’s talent and explosiveness, but I decided to watch the highlights of Franklin against Whyte and Joshua to see if there’s anything which suggests that Franklin could fare better than people expect.
The highlights of the Whyte and Joshua fight have revealed some insight as to why he’s not yet been stopped. He actually moves pretty well, better than Dillian Whyte at least, and he counters pretty well when hit. In fact, he himself said when studying Itauma’s knockout of Whyte, that he thought the stoppage could have been prevented had Whyte thrown back.
If you ignore the Itauma hype, the fact that Franklin has never been stopped could give us confidence in him fairing ok in this one too. Itauma has also gone the distance in 2 fights, albeit only 6-rounders, and they were 2 of his very first fights, but is there a possibility this one could go the distance?
Itauma may be looking to get some rounds under his belt, so all things considered, I think a bet on a later stoppage could be the value play. AJ’s jab consistently caused Franklin problems, and with Itauma’s skillset, even a brave and smart performance from Franklin probably won’t be enough to see him last the full 10 rounds.
It wouldn’t surprise me to see the referee stop this one due to the constant punishment Franklin will receive, or for the towel to be thrown in by his corner. Therefore, my Best Value Bet is for Itauma to win the fight in rounds 6 to 10 at a price of 5/2.
There is, of course, the chance that we’re witnessing a generational talent. So a Fun Longshot Wager on the round one knockout at 10/1 will be my second bet and could make things exciting.
Best Value Bet (BVB) -> Itauma to win the fight in rounds 6 to 10 at 5/2 (3.75) with SkyBet
Fun Longshot Wager (FLW) -> Itauma to win by knockout in Round 1 at 10/1 (11.0) with Spreadex