Really looking forward to this one. The build-up hasn’t been great, but we never expect it to be with Dubois. His attempts at banter have become humorous though to be fair. The whole “if he wasn’t a boxer, he’d be a bin man” comment from Wardley all seemed a bit staged and forced, but the fight doesn’t really need any of that anyway to be honest.
This is a world title fight between 2 huge-hitting heavyweights in their prime, and the consensus is that we’re going to get a knockout. Wardley is still undefeated and has passed some decent tests despite being written off and an underdog in a fair few of his recent fights. Dubois has lost twice to Usyk but aside from that and a bad injury early on in his career against Joe Joyce, he’s been faultless.
What the experts are saying
The voice of boxing Adam Smith was live on Talksport talking up Dubois’s CV and thinks people are underestimating him based on the 2 Usyk fights, which I totally agree with. He all but said that he fancies Dubois to win.
Carl Froch is also thinking in the same way saying ““This might be the one where actually, he [Wardley] finds out what pro boxing is all about because Daniel Dubois, if he is firing on all cylinders and he fancies the job, he could end up really causing some damage and knocking out Fabio bad,”
All we need now is David Haye to tells us he’s backing Fabio Wardley and we know that Dubois is a good thing.
Eddie Hearn has said he thinks Wardley will win (late). This despite backing against Wardley in his last few fights and being wrong. Now he backs him against arguably the most dangerous heavyweight out there. Typical Eddie Hearn U-turn here.
Analysis and Prediction
Both fighters have a knockout ratio of 95% and they can’t be separated in terms of reach (both 78 inches) and height (both 6ft 5) either. What does separate them though is skill level and level of opponents faced. Fabio Wardley turned pro late and came through from the white-collar boxing scene and has had to play catch up somewhat.
Wardley had a good win last time out against Joseph Parker, but Parker was edging that fight on the scorecards until he got stopped. Some also say it was a bit of a premature stoppage). His wins against Frazer Clarke and Justis Huni were decent, but I don’t particularly rate either fighter. Wardley also drew his first fight with Clarke.
Dubois has been called a quitter a few times. I guess it started when he retired with a bad injury against Joe Joyce, but his left eye was completely closed, and he couldn’t see for most of the fight. His bottle was again questioned in his fights against Oleksander Usyk where he seemed to give up after initial success, particularly in the first fight. I don’t buy this though and think that he simply ran out of steam against a super-fit Usyk, as nearly all Usyk’s opponents have.
All in all, I think Dubois is a strong favourite in this one and the odds are wrong. Wardley is an even money slight favourite with Dubois priced at 11/10. I really don’t understand this to be honest, and I’d make Dubois a 4/5 favourite at least.
Wardley’s skill set is not as good as that of Dubois and he’ll be happy to trade punches with him which as Anthony Joshua found out, is not a good idea. I know that they say sparring stories mean nothing but in this case the fact that both fighters attest to Dubois getting the better of Wardley when they did spar, gives Dubois a slight psychological advantage.
My prediction for Wardley v Dubois is for Dubois to win by knockout.
Best Value Bet
I’ve already given my prediction for the fight and the odds on the knockout are generous enough to have as my Best Value Bet. Dubois to win by KO TKO or Disqualification is 9/5. I normally go for odds of 2/1 or over for my best value bet with this being only a touch lower and offers very good value in my opinion.
You can also get a price boost on this through Betfair or Paddy Power. If the odds are a touch skinny for you, I’d suggest you go with Dubois to win by TKO only which is a better price at 13/5. Wardley is a tough fighter with a lot of determination, and I can see him being stopped on his feet rather as opposed to being knocked out cold.
Good Value Longshot
I know I have gone for the Dubois knockout for my best value bet, but I can’t see anything that correlates with this for my fun longshot wager. So, I’m also going to take a punt on the fight being closer than anticipated but Dubois still winning by majority decision. Whilst I accept a knockout is very likely, both fighters are tough and determined and odds of 50/1 for a split decision in favour of Dubois look big in my opinion.
Obviously, both bets can’t win but the best Value Bet is for 1pt stake, and the Fun Longshot Wager is just half a point so the winnings on the first bet still easily cover the second bet, and we’d still make a decent profit. If the FLW wins we’ve struck gold and covered the first bet many times over!
Good luck and enjoy.
BVB -> 1pt on Dubois to win by KO TKO or Disqualification at 2/1 with Betfair
FLW -> 1/2pt Dubois By MD at 50/1 with Betfair
