A chance for Pep Guardiola to complete a domestic cup double in what could be his last season for Manchester City and a chance to salvage something from what has been a bit of a shit show of a season for Chelsea.
City come into the final in the same kind of form as they have all season. Generally brilliant and dominant in most matches, but with occasional costly slip-ups. These slip-ups, namely the 3-3 draw against Everton, will surely be the reason they won’t claim the league title when the season ends in a couple of weeks.
Chelsea’s form has been terrible, with the point last time out against Liverpool putting an end to the 7-match losing streak in the league, which until the match at Anfield had only seen them score one league goal since the infamous huddle against Newcastle in the middle of March.
Analysis and Prediction
I can’t make a case for Chelsea in this one. You could say that people may have thought the same about Palace in last year’s final, but Chelsea play a lot more openly and concede goals more easily. I don’t think they match up with City very well at all, and this was evident in City’s 3-0 away win at Stamford Bridge last month.
City are unbeaten in their last 8 matches, winning 7. Chelsea haven’t won in their last 7 league games and only scored 2 goals in the process. So I think this should be a pretty straightforward cup final for Man City, and I predict a 2-0 win for the league cup holders.
Best Value Bet
A straightforward win for City is what I’ve predicted, and my best value bet follows that same thinking. I would be very surprised if City don’t get the job done in 90 minutes, and I also fancy them to keep a clean sheet.
I’ve mentioned Chelsea’s poor goalscoring form, and goals are even harder to come by in cup finals. If City score first, which I think they will, I think they’ll play possession football and make it very tough for Chelsea to create chances.
So my best value bet is for Man City to win the match (in 90 minutes) and for both teams to score = No at odds of 9/4. We’re effectively saying that we are backing City to win to nil in 90 minutes.
Fun Longshot Wager
Looking at the first goalscorer market for my longshot in this one. Mainly because I was randomly drawn to Ilkay Gündoğan to score first and anytime in the 2023 FA Cup final against Man Utd. I didn’t put the bet on, and he scored twice! Lesson learnt. Go with your gut.
Midfielders scoring in FA Cup finals has been very much a trend in the last 5 finals. As well as Gundogan’s double, we had Tielemans’ winner for Leicester in 2021, Maino’s winner in the 2024 Manchester Derby Cup Final, and Ebereche Eze’s winner for Palace in last year’s final. Fernandez and Garnacho make up the other scorers in these 5 finals, and goals by strikers have clearly been hard to come by.
Most of these goals have come from outside the box or around the edge of the penalty box, and there may be a reason for this. Teams are so astute defensively nowadays and are so organised that it’s difficult to break them down, especially when effort is at its maximum, like in a cup final. This perhaps leads to more space or maybe forces more attempts from outside the box. Just a theory, though.
The one that I’m gonna go with for this year’s final is not just a gut feeling but is very much backed up by form and stats.
Jeremy Doku is in a rich vein of form, having scored 4 in his last 3 games. He also scored in the FA Cup final 2 years ago, and he’s the type of player that can break the deadlock in a tight game like a final.
It seems a bit of an obvious one, but at odds of 12/1 on Doku being the first goalscorer with Spreadex, I think he is good value. Most other bookies are 10/1 or under.
There is a chance that Pep doesn’t start him, but if that happens and he doesn’t come on or he comes on after the first goal has been scored, then my stake will be refunded. Doku was rested in the match against Palace on Wednesday and only came on for the last half an hour which is a good sign that he will start on Saturday.
BVB -> 1pt on Man City to win and both teams to score = No at 9/4 with Bet365
FLW -> 1/2pt on Jeremy Doku to score first at 12/1 with Spreadex
