Another lovely priced winner (11/4) at the weekend with Daniel Dubois’ second round knockout of Fabio Wardley comfortably landing our Dubois bet which was for him to win in rounds 1 to 6.
The Fun Longshot Wager (FLW) at a smaller stake of half a point was a loser however. This was in part to be expected as it was a bet for Dubois to win in round 7 and so the BVB and FLW couldn’t both be winners.
That makes it 14 straight losses for the Fun Longshot Wagers.
At odds of 10/1 or over this is to be expected but in truth, I’ve struggled to find many 10/1 shots that I feel are value in a lot of the events I have previewed and in recent times the FLW at a smaller stake has served as a sort of hedge or backup should the BVB not land.
I am confident in my Bets Value Bets though and haven’t had much faith in landing a big price for the Fun Longshot Wager especially when it contradicts the BVB bet.
Long losing streaks should be expected especially when backing 10/1 shots and I would guess that the longest possible losing streak is at least 30 if not more when it comes to backing at these kind of prices.
The trouble is that I am only previewing the biggest football and boxing events in the UK and I now think that betting so selectively doesn’t really fit with my betting style.
The BVB bets are also performing so well that it feels a shame that the FLW bets are watering down it’s excellent record.
So from now on, I am retiring the FLW bets and sticking to what I am good at. That is finding nice priced winners that have more than half a chance of landing.
This will make my number of bets per year quite small really but I have also enjoyed pricing up the premier league matches and have begun betting on matches where i have an estimated edge of 5% or more.
It’s early days for this and the new premier league season itself but I am enjoying this and I think I will fare better with this approach than trying to find 10/1 winners.
If you are interested in pricing up the premier league football matches yourself and like the idea of dynamically testing different edge % ranges, then check out my new Football Edge Finder Tool.
