Joseph Parker has become a fight fan’s favourite over the last few years. Not only is he a great fighter and in a rich vein of form, but he has also gone about his business in a very unassuming fashion, and he has shown a lighter side to his personality through his viral social media videos. In fact, both he and Fabio Wardley play the “Mr Nice Guy” character so well that it is difficult to take a side in the contest between them, which takes place this Saturday at the 02 arena.
From a betting point of view, however, Wardley has to be the value pick. Not just because he is an underdog, but because he is young, fresh and knocked out 18 out of 20 of his opponents. At 30, he is only 3 years younger than Parker, but he has had 19 fewer fights and didn’t have an amateur career either, as he started with white collar boxing.
Many will say his lack of experience and ring time is a disadvantage and that Joseph Parker will box his way to an easy points decision. That is obviously a strong possibility. But Wardley is game, not afraid to be hit, and I believe he will make Parker fight. He is also an inch taller than Parker and has a 2-inch reach advantage.
Parker, who is ranked number 3 with Ring Magazine, is on a great run with six straight wins, and he has now perfected a style of defending well and throwing strong counter punches when attacked. He is much braver than the Parker who fought Anthony Joshua and much more ring Savvy than the one who lost a split decision to Dillian Whyte. The first three of these wins were against lesser opposition, and though the latter three are the more impressive names, timing has definitely been on his side.
We all know that Deontay Wilder was not the force he once was, and Martin Bakole was pulled in from his holiday to replace Daniel Dubois at ridiculously short notice and was in terrible shape. The fight ended so early you could barely call it a proper fight.
Ranked number 9 with Ring, Wardley’s resume isn’t impressive in terms of personnel. Though the fact that he has won nearly all his fights so easily means that Parker has a serious and hungry opponent to deal with. His power got him out of jail last time out in the interim heavyweight title fight against Justis Huni, but it shows he has the grit and determination to find a way to win. I also think Huni is faster than Parker and that he won’t cause Wardley the same kind of problems.
We have seen what a younger, hungrier man can do against boxers more experienced but coming towards the end of their careers in Itauma’s demolition job on Dillian Whyte, and although it would be ludicrous to suggest that this fight is exactly like that match-up, it’s not too much of a stretch to see the same outcome.
Wardley will certainly be at home at the 02, having boxed there 7 times already, compared with Parker’s sole appearance in his loss to Whyte. He is also the British man, and although Parker is loved by the British fight fans, there will be plenty of support for Fabio. His ability to go into the later rounds is a bit of an unknown. Though he has had a 12-rounder now in that first fight against Frazer Clarke, and his last fight went 10 rounds too, which I believe will have stood him in good stead.
Big Parker is a tough New Zealand fighter, a warrior, and I think he could have enough guile and determination to go the distance with Wardley, even if he is knocked down by Wardley’s obvious Power. So, as well as backing Wardley at 10/3, I will also take a small punt on Wardley winning on points.
I feel I have made a good argument for Wardley to win on Saturday night, but I have to admit there is very little in the two resumés to suggest that he will win on points. This is merely a gut feeling that odds of 14/1 represent value and that if I am favouring Wardley to come out on top, Joseph Parker will be resilient enough to last the distance.
Best Value Bet (BVB) -> Fabio Wardley to beat Joseph Parker at 10/3 with Bet365
Fun Longshot Wager (FLW) -> Fabio Wardley to win on points at 14/1 with BetVictor