Given the punishment Daniel Dubois dished out to Fabio Wardley back in May, I’m surprised Wardley agreed to a rematch, especially with just five months between the fights.
Rematches that come around this quickly are often the result of a controversial decision or a fighter believing they can avenge a defeat by changing their tactics. I’m not convinced either applies here.
Wardley will, of course, take confidence from knocking Dubois down twice in the first fight. But I don’t think he has the boxing skills or speed to suddenly approach this fight in a completely different way.
In my opinion, an early knockout remains Wardley’s best chance of winning. If he doesn’t land a big shot in the opening couple of rounds, I’d expect Dubois to take charge and start dishing out some major punishment again.
Dubois should also be more cautious this time around, having experienced Wardley’s power first-hand. I wouldn’t expect him to make exactly the same mistakes again.
I’m also not convinced Wardley will want to take anywhere near as much punishment as he did last time. Once bitten, twice shy and all that.
The knockout in their previous fight came in round 11, but it felt well overdue, and many would argue the fight could have been stopped earlier.
With that in mind, I’m backing Dubois to get the job done earlier this time around.
Best Value Bet (BVB): Dubois to win in rounds 1–6.
This is currently available at odds of 11/4, which I think represents good value.
Finding a big price for the Fun Longshot Wager was a little more difficult, but I’ve settled on Dubois to win in round 7.
I don’t normally like backing individual rounds for a fight to end because they can feel a bit of a lottery. However, with rounds 1–6 already covered by the BVB, a smaller bet on round 7 gives us another potential route to a Dubois win.
Dubois to win in round 7 is currently available at 10/1.
BVB → Dubois to win in rounds 1–6 at 11/4 with Betfair
FLW → Dubois to win in round 7 at 10/1 with Bet365
