I feel like we’ve not had a decent fight in a while now but this IBF World Title fight between Moses Itauma and Filip Hrgovic at the O2 in London on Saturday night is enough to whet the appetite. If Itauma wins, he will become Britain’s youngest ever heavyweight world champion.
Most people are expecting Itauma to make pretty light work of Hrgovic and I can see why. He’s a very talented fighter as we all know. His footwork and hand speed are so good that I don’t think there’s any heavyweight who wouldn’t face problems in a fight with him.
When I first started writing my thoughts on this fight, I was building up a case for Hrgovic to win, as initially, I thought that this will undoubtedly be Itauma’s biggest test and that there was probably a better chance of an upset than the odds suggest.
My previews consist of two main avenues of information though. The first, what I know about the fighters, their records and how they’ve fared against similar fighters and the second, consists of me watching some recent clips of both fighters.
Looking at their resumes as a whole, and on paper this should be a close fight. 21-year-old Itauma is unbeaten in 14 fights (12 KOs), while Hrgovic is 20-1. That loss came against Daniel Dubois who is one of the best in the division. Hrgovic is also a former Olympic bronze medallist let’s not forget.
Having watched their most recent fights though, I have now come to the conclusion that Hrgovic won’t be able to live with Itauma’s speed and footwork and the chance of an upset is very slim. Hrgovic looked a little slow even against Dave Allen, who isn’t exactly renowned for his speed.
Thinking about the Dubois fight further, Hrgovic took a lot of punishment. He was hindered by a cut caused from a clash of heads but Itauma is quicker than Dubois and equally as vicious. This fight was over 2 years ago too and Hrgovic hasn’t got any quicker at the ripe old age of 34.
Hrgovic is the more experienced man of course and Itauma’s chin is yet to be tested. Hrgovic could potentially make it ugly and force Itauma to fight at a pace he’s never experienced. If Hrgovic is to win he would have to do it by knockout in my opinion. Itauma has a decent chin according to those he has sparred but this is clearly a different game. Overall though I think Itauma is too fresh and too sharp to get caught by anything that is going to trouble him and I believe he can take Hrgovic best punches, just as Daniel Dubois did.
What The Experts Are Saying
Peter Fury says he thinks Hrgovic is too slow to have a chance of beating Itauma. Fellow heavyweights, Dave Allen and Frazier Clarke think speed will be Hrgovic’s downfall too, as does trainer Dave Coldwell who is usually on the money with his fight analysis. Spencer Oliver has predicted a late stoppage, around rounds 8-10 which I can see happening myself.
Carl Froch thinks Moses is too skilled and too fast to be beaten and says that “The way he moves and evades shots appears to happen almost subconsciously. It is an automatic reflex.”.
Even David Haye seems to be backing the Itauna win which could be worrying. He does say” I really fancy Moses to win this one, but it might not be easy. It might not be straightforward, Filip is going to bring the heat.” So he seems the least sure about the win overall at least.
Best Value Bet
I am convinced that Itauma gets the knockout here especially as this is a 12 round fight which is mandatory for an IBF World Title fight. Hrgovic is tough but Dubois still got rid of him in 8 rounds albeit helped by the cut. Itauma was frustrated against the durable Franklin but still got the KO within 5 rounds. Hrgovic proved against Dubois he is susceptible to sustained punishment. Itauma’s speed and accuracy will take its toll after the early rounds and so I like Itauma to get the knockout in rounds 5-8 at a boosted price of 2/1 (from 9/5) with Betfair.
Fun Longshot Wager
Hrgovic could be slighter tougher and is definitely more skilled than Franklin and so there is a chance that this fight goes on a little longer than 8 rounds. I think Itauma wins by stoppage, but Hrgovic’s experience and durability give him a chance of surviving into the championship rounds.
For that reason, I like a smaller bet at bigger odds that Itauma gets the knockout in rounds 10-12 at 11/1 with Betfair. The boxing public are excited by Itauma and I think Moses will be desperate to make another statement and would be incredibly disappointed if he doesn’t get a knockout here.
This is more of a hedge at reasonable odds than a true longshot punt of course. This is because I think Itauma wins mid to late and it is a case of when this happens rather than whether Hrgovic gets stopped. And as for leaving out round 9, well we pray that he doesn’t knock him out in that one.
Best Value Bet -> Itauma to win the fight in rounds 5-8 at a boosted price of 2/1 with Betfair
Fun Longshot Wager -> Itauma to win the fight in rounds 10-12 at 11/1 with Betfair
Round 9 and the wrong man! I didn’t think Hrgovic would be able to withstand Itauma’s power and didn’t consider just how desperate he’d be to get the knockout. Too desperate it transpired and he punched himself into exhaustion.
Seeing more of Itauma, it appears that it’s his speed more so than power that causes his opponents problems.
I don’t think these were bad bets as the fight did go into the later rounds as predicted and Itauma paces himself a bit more and he wins on points or gets a late stoppage but I might trust my initial thoughts a bit more in future and go for a bigger priced underdog if I think it’s value, particularly for the FLW.