Your predictions. Your prices. Your edge.
Ever looked at the odds for a football match and wondered whether a team is actually worth backing?
Football Edge Finder helps you answer that question.
Instead of relying solely on bookmaker odds, create your own estimated probabilities for home wins, draws and away wins. Football Edge Finder automatically converts those percentages into your own fair odds, compares them with the bookmaker prices available and identifies which outcome offers the greatest potential value based on your predictions.
It doesn’t tell you who’s going to win. It helps you identify where the odds may be in your favour.
Find potential value. Explore staking strategies. Track your performance. All in one Excel spreadsheet.
[Get Football Edge Finder – £19.99]
1. Create your own tissue prices
A bookmaker might offer 3.00 for a home win, but is that actually a good price?
The answer depends on how likely you think the home team is to win.
In betting, a tissue is your own set of estimated fair odds for an event. It’s a way of putting a price on your predictions before comparing them with the bookmaker’s prices.
With Football Edge Finder, simply enter your estimated percentage probabilities for a home win, draw and away win. The spreadsheet does the rest.
Your fair odds represent the break-even prices implied by your probability estimates, before commission or other costs.
No complicated calculations or manual conversions. Just enter your predictions and let Football Edge Finder calculate your prices.
2. Compare your prices with the bookmakers and find your edge
Bookmaker odds aren’t always easy to interpret. What does 2.50 actually mean in terms of probability, and how does it compare with your own assessment?
Football Edge Finder converts the bookmaker’s odds into implied probabilities and compares them directly with yours.
It then highlights the potential edge on each outcome and identifies the selection offering the greatest value based on your estimates.
Rather than guessing whether a price looks generous, you’ll have a consistent way to compare all three possible match outcomes.
This is an Illustrative example, not a betting recommendation. Potential value depends on the accuracy of your estimates.
Football Edge Finder in Action
Enter your own percentage estimates, compare them with the available odds and instantly see where the value lies.
3. Explore Kelly staking and manage your bankroll
Finding a potential value bet is only half the equation. Deciding how much to stake is another challenge entirely.
Football Edge Finder includes Kelly staking calculations to help you explore stake sizes based on your estimated probabilities and the odds available.
The Kelly Criterion is a mathematical formula designed to calculate the stake that maximises long-term logarithmic bankroll growth, assuming your probability estimates are accurate.
You can explore how different estimates and bookmaker prices affect the suggested stake, and consider more conservative fractional Kelly approaches where supported by your settings.
Crucially, Kelly isn’t a guarantee of profit. Overestimating the likelihood of an outcome can result in stakes that are too large, which is why bankroll management and accurate probability estimates are so important.
4. Set your minimum edge and test different staking scenarios
Not every small apparent advantage will be worth considering.
Football Edge Finder lets you choose a minimum edge percentage so you can focus on selections that meet your own value criteria.
Adjust your minimum edge, stake and Kelly staking settings to explore different what-if scenarios. The spreadsheet dynamically recalculates the relevant figures whenever you change your inputs.
Want to see how increasing your minimum edge affects the number of qualifying selections? Or compare the results of different staking approaches?
Change the settings and explore the impact without having to rebuild formulas or manually recalculate your figures.
5. Track your results with totals and monthly analysis
A betting strategy is only useful if you can review how it’s actually performing.
Football Edge Finder includes totals and monthly analysis to help you examine your recorded betting results over time.
Review your profit and loss, assess your overall performance and compare individual months to see how your approach has performed.
It’s a useful way to establish whether your estimates and staking decisions are delivering the results you expected, rather than judging a strategy on a handful of winning or losing bets.
6. Use it for any football league, every season
Football Edge Finder isn’t restricted to the Premier League.
Its editable team list allows you to customise the spreadsheet for whichever football league you want to analyse.
Use it for the Premier League, Championship, League One, League Two or other competitions. Simply update the team names to create a workbook for your chosen league.
You can also create a separate copy for each season, keeping previous results intact while starting fresh with new teams and fixtures.
One purchase gives you a flexible tool you can reuse across leagues and seasons.
Everything you need in one spreadsheet
- Create your own fair odds from your estimated match probabilities.
- Compare your prices with bookmaker odds to identify potential value.
- Find the outcome with the greatest calculated edge.
- Explore Kelly staking and adjust your staking settings.
- Set your own minimum edge percentage.
- Instantly recalculate figures to test what-if scenarios.
- Monitor your results with totals and monthly analysis.
- Customise team lists for different leagues and seasons.
Important: Microsoft Excel Required
Microsoft Excel is required to use this spreadsheet. Please ensure you have access to a compatible copy of Microsoft Excel before downloading or purchasing.
Refund Policy
All sales are final. Refunds are not accepted. Please read the product description carefully and ensure that you have the required software before purchasing.
Football Edge Finder is an analysis tool, not a prediction service. It cannot guarantee profitable betting. Always gamble responsibly and only stake what you can afford to lose.
